EPL: Mid-Season Review

Going into the November international break, Liverpool are eight points ahead at the top of the Premier League. Defending champions Manchester City have slipped to fourth place following their loss to Liverpool. The question most commentators are asking is if Liverpool can hold on to this lead. We are two-thirds of the way through the…

Stirring the pile efficiently

Warning: This is a technical post, and involves some code, etc.  As I’ve ranted a fair bit on this blog over the last year, a lot of “machine learning” in the industry can be described as “stirring the pile”. Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with this image from XKCD by now: Basically…

Duckworth Lewis Book

Yesterday at the local council library, I came across this book called “Duckworth Lewis” written by Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis (who “invented” the eponymous rain rule). While I’d never heard about the book, given my general interest in sports analytics I picked it up, and duly finished reading it by this morning. The good…

Restaurants, deliveries and data

Delivery aggregators are moving customer data away from the retailer, who now has less knowledge about his customer.  Ever since data collection and analysis became cheap (with cloud-based on-demand web servers and MapReduce), there have been attempts to collect as much data as possible and use it to do better business. I must admit to…

Black Box Models

A few years ago, Felix Salmon wrote this article in Wired called “The Formula That Killed Wall Street“. It was about a formula called “Gaussian Copula”, which was a formula for estimating the joint probability of a set of events happening, if you knew the individual probabilities. It was a mathematical breakthrough. Unfortunately, it fell…